🧪 Experiments
Hypotheses, proposed changes, test windows, and results.
Room Intelligence
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Current Records
| id | created_at | title | hypothesis | room | proposed_change | success_metric | status | result | payload | priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tue Jun 09 2026 08:07:33 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | EXPERIMENT from investigation: Hey any of the current strategies relate to the current asset value or state of | CURRENT STATE: - Recent executions show strong, stable BUY activity on PENGU-EUR and SHIB-EUR markets with multiple €5 BUY orders fully filled on Bitvavo. - Portfolio balances reflect these fills, confirming synchronization and operational BUY path. - SELL commands for PENGU-EUR are generated and routed correctly but consistently rejected by Bitvavo with HTTP 400 errors; no SELL fills recorded. - NEX-EUR market remains blocked due to zero balance and missing Bitvavo credentials; no fresh SELL fills. - System is in controlled live-probe recovery mode focusing on BUY probes only (PENGU-EUR and SHIB-EUR). - No evidence of repeated SELL failures or credential errors for PENGU-EUR SELL in recent data. - Strategy retirement status: PENGU BUY strategies are retired; SELL logic remains unvalidated and profitability unknown. - No fresh evidence that current strategies dynamically relate to portfolio state or asset value beyond manual sells; however, BUY probes run as tiny controlled experiments. HISTORICAL DEBT: - Historical failures mostly involve NEX-EUR and BTC-EUR markets with missing credentials, invalid orders (empty market/action, zero amount), and 400 errors on SELL orders. - Past issues with missing credentials and invalid order candidates have been addressed for BUY probes. - Historical SELL failures on other markets do not affect current PENGU-EUR SELL testing. - Profitability and sell logic remain unknown and unvalidated. - Old BTC-era strategy memory and retirement rules may be outdated or irrelevant. ASSUMPTIONS: - Current strategies do not automatically adjust or emerge based on portfolio asset values or manual sells; they run predefined probes. - SELL order payloads for PENGU-EUR likely fail Bitvavo validation due to amount calculation, minimum order size, precision, or formatting issues. - Portfolio balance updates after SELL fills are untested due to no fills. - Bitvavo API credentials and environment variables are correctly configured for BUY; SELL-speci | investigation | [object Object] | Define success metric before approval. | PROPOSED | [object Object] | 50 | |
| 3 | Mon Jun 08 2026 15:41:06 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | EXPERIMENT from warroom: One-shot PENGU-EUR SELL validation Success criteria: SELL command generated SE | CURRENT STATE (last 2 hours, fresh evidence): - PENGU-EUR BUY commands are generated, pass gates, and Bitvavo returns FILLED status (4 hits). - live_executions records FILLED status for PENGU-EUR BUY orders. - Portfolio balances update accordingly for these BUY probes. - No fresh evidence of SELL commands for PENGU-EUR in the last 2 hours. - No repeated SELL spam or 400 errors reported recently for PENGU-EUR. - Bitvavo credentials are confirmed working for BUY probes. - The system is in controlled live-probe recovery mode focusing on BUY probes (PENGU-EUR and SHIB-EUR). - No fresh SELL execution attempts or fills for PENGU-EUR visible in recent data. HISTORICAL DEBT (older than 2 hours): - Past failures include empty candidate orders (market/action empty, amount=0). - Missing Bitvavo credentials caused NEX-EUR SELL failures. - 400 errors on NEX-EUR SELL orders due to invalid requests. - Repeated sell loops and balance blocks historically noted on NEX-EUR and BTC-EUR markets. - No explicit historical SELL failures recorded for PENGU-EUR. - Sell logic remains unvalidated and profitability unknown. - PENGU BUY strategy is retired, so SELL path may not have been exercised recently. ASSUMPTIONS: - SELL commands for PENGU-EUR have not been actively tested or executed in the last 2 hours. - The system currently prioritizes BUY probes for PENGU-EUR and SHIB-EUR only. - Bitvavo API credentials and environment variables are correctly configured for PENGU-EUR BUY but unconfirmed for SELL. - Portfolio balance updates are verified only for BUY fills so far. - SELL logic and execution path for PENGU-EUR remain unvalidated and unknown. UNKNOWNs: - Whether SELL commands for PENGU-EUR are generated and pass gate checks. - Whether Bitvavo accepts and fills PENGU-EUR SELL orders. - Whether live_executions status updates to FILLED on SELL fills. - Whether portfolio balances update correctly after SELL fills. - Whether repeated SELL spam or loops occur on PENGU-EUR. - Whether any | warroom | [object Object] | Define success metric before approval. | PROPOSED | [object Object] | 50 | |
| 2 | Sun Jun 07 2026 22:25:41 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | EXPERIMENT from agents: Agent: Execution Auditor Purpose: Review failed executions. Inputs: live_execu | The provided context mentions the agent "Execution Auditor" with the purpose to review failed executions, taking "live_executions" as input and outputting "cases" and "experiments." However, the current context is limited and notes the room as "Unknown room," which suggests there is no direct access to relevant tables or market data in this environment. **Next checks:** - Verify if the "live_executions" table is available in any known rooms such as "execution_logs" or "market_data" where execution records are stored. - Confirm the schema and key fields of "live_executions" to enable filtering for failed executions (e.g., status codes, error flags). - Identify existing "cases" and "experiments" tables or repositories where findings and test runs are logged. - Check for any data ingestion pipelines or message queues that feed execution data to this agent. **Operational summary:** - Without access to "live_executions" data, the Execution Auditor cannot perform its core function. - Confirm room assignments or request permissions to access the rooms containing "live_executions." - Once data access is confirmed, implement queries to extract executions with failure indicators and populate "cases" with root cause analysis. - Set up experiments by replaying or simulating failure scenarios for automated correction or prevention testing. Given the current state, focus immediate efforts on locating and validating access to the "live_executions" data source in known database contexts. | agents | [object Object] | Define success metric before approval. | PROPOSED | [object Object] | 50 | |
| 1 | Sun Jun 07 2026 22:20:18 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) | EXPERIMENT from execution: EXPERIMENT Title: PENGU probe execution quality Hypothesis: Execution failures | The PENGU probe execution quality experiment hypothesizes that execution failures are reducing learning speed, measured by filled_orders / total_orders. From the provided executions table in the execution room, the following concrete operational observations arise: 1. Failure Pattern: - A large majority of the executions have status FAILED. - Two main failure reasons dominate: a. "Invalid order candidate: market= action= amount_eur=0" — these are orders sent with empty or zero parameters. b. "Request failed with status code 400" — these failures occur for NEX-EUR SELL orders with amount_eur=25. - Another recurring failure is "Missing Bitvavo credentials: key=false secret=false source=missing" for NEX-EUR SELL orders. 2. Markets Affected: - Most failures occur on the bitvavo exchange. - Failures with empty market/action happen on orders with amount_eur=0, suggesting the order generation or order candidate filtering logic might be producing invalid entries. - Failures with 400 errors and with missing credentials are specifically for the NEX-EUR market on bitvavo. 3. Repeated Patterns: - Sequential recurring time series: failures every minute around the same time range. - Consistent invalid or missing parameters in the order candidates, causing immediate rejection. - Credential absence or invalid keys causing authorization failures. 4. Blockers and Next Checks: - **Order candidate generation**: Check the process generating candidate orders for empty or zero parameters that lead to invalid orders. - **Parameter validation**: Confirm if there is strict validation upstream before attempting execution to reject zero-amount or missing market/action orders. - **Credentials configuration**: Investigate the Bitvavo API key and secret management. The system logs state "key=false secret=false source=missing," indicating credentials are not set or not loaded properly. - **HTTP 400 Bad Request origin**: For NEX-EUR market | execution | [object Object] | Define success metric before approval. | PROPOSED | [object Object] | 50 |
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